Wall Street Rebounds as Shutdown Fears Weigh on Dollar, Oil Tumbles

Major Indices Closed Higher :

S&P 500 (SPX): +0.26% to 6,661.20

Dow Jones (DJI): +0.15% to 46,316.07

Russell 2000 (RUT): +0.04% to 2,435.25

On September 29, 2025, major stock indexes rose, with the Nasdaq up 0.5%, the S&P 500 up 0.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.2%, rebounding after a weekly loss. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.2% to 97.94, and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.14% amid fears of a potential government shutdown by Wednesday. Gold hit a record high of $3,860, while West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell nearly 4% to $63.20 per barrel due to an expected OPEC output increase. Bitcoin rose over 3% to $114,400.

A potential government shutdown loomed, with a 72% chance priced in by Polymarket. The Social Security Administration’s modernization efforts, including a shift to digital services, raised concerns for seniors reliant on benefits. Some student loan borrowers faced potential tax bills if forgiveness isn’t processed by year-end.

CSX rose 5% after naming a new CEO. The Federal Reserve’s next meeting on October 28-29 is expected to cut the fed funds rate by 0.25% to 3.75%-4%, addressing a weakening job market and rising inflation.

Robinhood Markets surged 12% after CEO Vlad Tenev announced 4 billion event contracts traded on its prediction markets. Nvidia gained 2%, while Intel dropped nearly 3% after a 20% rise last week. Electronic Arts jumped 4.5% after confirming a $55 billion acquisition by PIF, Silver Lake, and Affinity Partners. Carnival fell 4% despite strong quarterly results, and GSK rose over 3% with a CEO transition announced.

Energy was the worst-performing S&P 500 sector, down 1.9%, with Devon Energy, Diamondback Energy, ConocoPhillips, and ExxonMobil among the top decliners. Etsy and Shopify surged 15.8% and 6%, respectively, after OpenAI launched an "Instant Checkout" feature for ChatGPT. Western Digital and Seagate Technology rose 9.2% and 5.3% due to AI-driven demand for hard drives. Novo Nordisk slipped after a Morgan Stanley downgrade citing weaker demand for its weight-loss drugs.

9:00 am- S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) (Jul).

9:45 am- Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) (Sep).

10:00 am- Job openings (Aug) & Consumer confidence (Sep).

The Dow gained +0.15%, closing at 46,316.07. Key support sits at 46,184.48; holding above could spark a rebound toward 46,399.59 and 46,500.

The index ended at 24,611.35. Key support lies at 24,533.57; holding above this level could open upside toward 24,712.44 and 24,766.36.

Closing at 6,661.21, the S&P is trading above support at 6,648.44. If buyers hold this level, the potential upside targets are 6,676.89 and 6,694.30.

SPY was trading at $662.62 pre-market, with support at $660.67 and potential upside targets at $665.35 and $666.78.

QQQ was trading at $598.16 pre-market, with key support at $596.12. Holding above this level keeps upside targets in play at $600.07 and $602.50.

IWM was trading at $240.78 pre-market. Support is nearby at $239.85, while the potential upside levels stand at $242.96 and $244.50.

SMH traded at $322.66 pre-market. Support lies at $321.46; a bounce could test $324.47 and $325.25.

SOXL was at $33.91 pre-market. Support at $33.42 must hold to fuel a move towards $34.18 and $34.50.

Company Overview- Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LW) leads the frozen potato products market and is set to announce its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings.

Earnings Expectations- Forecasts indicate $1.62 billion in revenue (down 2.3% YoY) and $0.53 EPS (down 27% YoY) for the upcoming quarter.

Market Pressures- LW grapples with escalating costs, shifting dynamics, and activist investor Jana Partners, urging reforms like a potential sale.

Financial Highlights- Q4 FY2025 showed $1.67 billion in net sales (up 4% YoY), but FY2026 guidance was cut due to higher costs and lower volumes, targeting $6.35–$6.45 billion in sales and $1.17–$1.21 billion in adjusted EBITDA.

Outlook- While near-term headwinds persist, LW's market dominance, brand strength, and global potato demand position it for eventual recovery.

LW was trading at $56.44 pre-market. Support is at $55.96, while the potential upside levels stand at $57.02 and $57.48.

Earnings Expectations- Analysts forecast revenue of $1.54 billion (up 16.7% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $1.20 for the quarter.

Recent Performance- Last quarter, Paychex reported $1.43 billion in revenue (up 10.2% YoY), missing analyst expectations by 1.1% and EBITDA estimates.

Industry Outlook- As the first among peers to report, Paychex’s results could signal trends for finance and HR software stocks, with potential growth in AI-driven enterprise software.

PAYX was trading at $127.01 pre-market. Support is at $126, while the potential upside levels stand at $128.58 and $130.21.

Company Overview- Nike (NKE) faces pivotal Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings, testing its turnaround strategy amid market share losses and innovation lags.

Earnings Expectations- Analysts anticipate $0.27 EPS and $11 billion in revenue, reflecting a 5% sales decline year-over-year, per FactSet estimates.

Recent Challenges- Nike has faced innovation lapses, product missteps, excessive discounting, and strained wholesale ties, with shares down 27% over three years.

Turnaround Efforts- Management is clearing old inventory, introducing new styles, and rebuilding wholesale relationships, with the heaviest financial impact reportedly past.

Key Focus Areas- Investors seek signs of recovery through better-than-expected results, improved consumer reception, margin growth, or stronger wholesale orders, despite tariff pressures.

NKE was trading at $69.44 pre-market. Support is at $68.965, while the potential upside levels stand at $69.80 and $70.34.