Fed in Focus: Markets Ease Ahead of Rate Decision

Major Indices Declined Slightly :

S&P 500 (SPX): -0.13% to 6,606.77

Dow Jones (DJI): -0.27% to 45,757.90

Russell 2000 (RUT): -0.09% to 2,403.03

On September 16, 2025, U.S. stocks ended slightly lower as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut, the first of the year, expected to lower rates by a quarter point to 4.00%-4.25%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both dipped 0.1% after hitting intraday highs, while the Dow fell 0.3%. U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in August, exceeding expectations, showing consumer resilience despite tariff concerns.

The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.03%, gold hit a record $3,725, oil rose 2% to $64.55, and Bitcoin climbed to nearly $117,000. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.6% to 96.69.

Decliners: Warner Bros. Discovery (-6.2%) and Emerson Electric (-4.9%) fell due to concerns over a potential Paramount Skydance deal and weak sales forecasts, respectively.

Advancers: APA Corp. (+7%) and Steel Dynamics (+6.1%) rose on higher oil prices and strong profit outlooks, respectively. Hershey (+4.3%) and Moderna (+4%) also gained.

Oracle (+1.5%) rose on potential involvement in a TikTok deal, while Tesla (+2.8%) climbed after Elon Musk’s $1 billion stock purchase. Hims & Hers Health (-5.7%) dropped after an FDA warning on misleading drug claims.

Webtoon Entertainment surged 39% on a Disney investment and collaboration. Microsoft announced a $30 billion AI investment in the UK, but its shares fell 1.2%.

8:30 am- Housing starts & Building permits (Aug)

2:00 pm- FOMC interest-rate decision

2:30 pm- Fed Chair Powell press conference

The Dow declined -0.27%, closing at 45,757.90. Key support sits at 45,698.33; holding above could spark a rebound toward 45,806.23 and 45,914.16.

The index ended at 24,274.25. Key support lies at 24,200; holding above this level could open upside toward 24,295.64 and 24,350.

Closing at 6,606.76, the S&P is trading above support at 6,593.42. If buyers hold this level, the potential upside targets are 6,615.62 and 6,625.

SPY was trading at $659.71 pre-market, with support at $657.94 and potential upside targets at $660.95 and $662.42.

QQQ was trading at $590.71 pre-market, with key support at $587.75. Holding above this level keeps upside targets in play at $592 and $593.75.

IWM was trading at $238.40 pre-market. Support is nearby at $237.35, while the potential upside levels stand at $239.38 and $240.08.

SMH traded at $306.02 pre-market. Support lies at $304.77; a bounce could test $307.17 and $307.41.

SOXL was at $30.03 pre-market. Support at $29.79 must hold to fuel a move towards $30.255 and $30.50.

Earnings Expectations- For Q1, analysts forecast a 7% revenue decline to $4.51 billion, with adjusted EPS expected at $0.82.

Recent Performance- In the previous quarter, revenue fell 3.3% year-over-year to $4.56 billion, slightly missing analyst estimates by 0.5%.

GIS was trading at $49.96 pre-market. Support is at $49.76, while the potential upside levels stand at $50.10 and $50.305.

Earnings Overview- Manchester United is set to release its next earnings report on September 17, 2025, with analysts expecting an EPS of -$0.07, improved from -$0.16 last year.

Financial Performance- Q3 fiscal 2025 showed a 17.4% revenue increase to £160.5 million and adjusted EBITDA of £51.2 million, up from £13.7 million, with a 20.4% reduction in operating expenses.

Revenue and EBITDA Guidance- The club tightened its fiscal 2025 revenue guidance to £660M–£670M and raised adjusted EBITDA guidance to £180M–£190M, reflecting financial optimism.

On-Field Challenges- A loss in the Europa League final to Tottenham Hotspur led to an 8.67% stock price drop and exclusion from next season’s European competitions, impacting revenue.

Infrastructure Investments- A £50 million redevelopment of the Carrington Training Complex, led by Norman Foster, aims to enhance player facilities and support long-term success.

Strategic Concerns- Critics argue that prioritizing infrastructure over immediate player signings may hinder on-field performance, potentially affecting fan support and stock value.

MANU was trading at $16.39 pre-market. Support is at $16.19, while the potential upside levels stand at $16.50 and $16.66.

Earnings Overview - Bullish is set to release its earnings report on September 17, 2025, with an EPS estimate of -$0.05 and a revenue estimate of $55.75M.

BLSH was trading at $51.20 pre-market. Support is at $50.96, while the potential upside levels stand at $51.44 and $51.84.

Earnings Schedule- Cracker Barrel will report its earnings after market hours on Wednesday, September 17, 2025.

Last Quarter Performance- In Q3, Cracker Barrel reported flat year-on-year revenue of $821.1 million, meeting expectations, with EPS and EBITDA beating analyst estimates.

Current Quarter Expectations- Analysts forecast a 4.3% year-on-year revenue decline to $855.5 million, with adjusted EPS expected at $0.77.

CBRL was trading at $51.49 pre-market. Support is at $50.94, while the potential upside levels stand at $51.75 and $52.18.